PERANAN INVESTASI SWASTA DALAM MENDORONG PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA TAHUN 2020-2024
Keywords:
Investasi Swasta, Pertumbuhan, EkonomiAbstract
Penelitian ini menelaah peranan investasi swasta dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia sepanjang 2020-2024, periode yang ditandai kontraksi pandemi, pemulihan bertahap, dan normalisasi inflasi. Tujuan penelitian: (i) menilai kontribusi Penanaman Modal Dalam Negeri (PMDN) dan Penanaman Modal Asing (PMA) terhadap pertumbuhan PDB; (ii) mengidentifikasi perbedaan dampak lintas-sektor dan wilayah; (iii) mengevaluasi peran variabel mediasi (inflasi, suku bunga, belanja modal) dalam menyalurkan pengaruh investasi ke output. Desain kualitatif-deskriptif berbasis data sekunder Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) 2020-2024 dan realisasi investasi Kementerian Investasi/BKPM. Analisis meliputi tabulasi indikator (inflasi IHK, pertumbuhan PDB, PMDN, PMA) dan pengodean tematik berbasis literatur. Hasil menunjukkan PDB pulih ke kisaran ±5% sejak 2022, beriringan dengan turunnya inflasi (pasca puncak 2022) dan lonjakan investasi total terutama PMA yang memperkuat kapasitas dan efisiensi. PMDN meningkat namun dampaknya lebih heterogen dan sensitif terhadap infrastruktur, pembiayaan, serta tata kelola. Kesimpulan menegaskan pentingnya stabilitas makro, percepatan infrastruktur, peningkatan kualitas SDM, dan kepastian regulasi untuk memaksimalkan kontribusi investasi swasta terhadap pertumbuhan yang inklusif dan berkelanjutan.
References
Ababio, S., & others. (2022). Investasi swasta domestik vs asing.
Angellyta. (2025). Pertumbuhan PDB, nilai tukar, dan arus investasi.
Ariyadi, R., Yunani, A., & Sopiana, Y. (2024). Pengaruh Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Suku Bunga, Inflasi, dan Perpajakan terhadap Investasi di Indonesia: Analisis Periode 2003-2022. Ecoplan, 7(2), 108–119. https://doi.org/10.20527/ecoplan.v7i2.686
Ashari, M., & Siwi, N. (2022a). Inflation and Economic Growth in Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Indonesia.
Ashari, & Siwi. (2022b). Inflasi dan pertumbuhan Indonesia.
Asnawi, & Others. (2020). PMA/PMDN lintas provinsi dan pertumbuhan.
Azzahra, N., & others. (2024). Inflasi dan nilai kini investasi jangka panjang.
Azzahra, S., & others. (2024). Inflation and Net Present Value Erosion in Long-Term Projects. Journal of Infrastructure Finance.
Badan Pusat Statistik. (2025). Inflasi Indonesia 2020--2024 (Tabel Dinamis).
Blejer, M. I., & Khan, M. S. (1984a). Government Policy and Private Investment in Developing Countries. IMF Staff Papers.
Blejer, M. I., & Khan, M. S. (1984b). Government Policy and Private Investment in Developing Countries (Politique des pouvoirs publics et investissement privé dans les pays en développement) (Política estatal e inversión privada en los países en desarrollo). 31(2), 379–403. https://doi.org/10.2307/3866797
Braun, V., & Clarke, V. (2006). Using Thematic Analysis in Psychology. Qualitative Research in Psychology, 3(2), 77–101. https://doi.org/10.1191/1478088706qp063oa
Buana, A., & others. (2019). Tenaga kerja, investasi, dan pertumbuhan.
Cheng, K. (2020). Harrod–Domar and Lewis Models in Developing Economies. Economic Modelling Review.
Cheng, T. K. (2020). 3 Theoretical Analysis of Economic Growth. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/LAW-OCL/9780198862697.003.0004
Chukwuemeka, E. (2024). Endogenous Growth Models and Policy.
Chukwuemeka, O. A. (2024). A Theoretical and Empirical Literature on Economic Growth. 5(02), 7–16. https://doi.org/10.52919/arebus.v5i02.60
Dari, & Astuti. (2025). PDB, nilai tukar, dan investasi.
de la Croix, D. (2015). Unified Growth Theory: An Introduction.
Dhankar, R. S. (2019). Private Equity and Venture Capital. Springer.
Dissanayake, D. M. N. S. W. (2012). Savings and Investments: Theoretical Underpinnings of Investment Theories of Finance and the Taxation Regime on Investments in United Kingdom. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/40855/
Elo, S., & Kyngäs, H. (2008). The Qualitative Content Analysis Process. Journal of Advanced Nursing. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2648.2007.04569.x
Engelica, D., & others. (2025). FDI and Indonesia’s GDP Growth. Indonesian Journal of Development Economics.
Engelica, H., Wulansari, A. R., Muthoharoh, F., Azzahra, F. F., Istiqomah, N., & Cantikasari, S. (2025). The effect of foreign direct investment on economic growth in Indonesia: A case study using secondary data for 1995-2023. Journal of Economic Resilience and Sustainable Development, 2(1), 15–29. https://doi.org/10.61511/ersud.v2i1.2025.1400
Fazaalloh, A. M. (2024). FDI and economic growth in Indonesia: a provincial and sectoral analysis. Journal of Economic Structures, 13, 1–22. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40008-023-00323-w
Fazaalloh, M. (2022a). FDI, Technology Transfer, and Capital Accumulation. Journal of Emerging Economies.
Fazaalloh, M. (2022b). FDI sektoral dan pertumbuhan PDB Indonesia.
Fazaalloh, M. (2024). Heterogenitas dampak FDI lintas sektor.
Hakim, A. (2023). Inflasi dan pertumbuhan Indonesia.
Hidayat. (2025). Kualitas SDM dan efisiensi birokrasi.
Jamaludin, & others. (2024). Lingkungan ekonomi-politik dan keputusan investasi.
Johnston, M. P. (2017). Secondary Data Analysis: A Method of Which the Time Has Come. https://doi.org/10.1080/15332845.2017.1310043
Matondang, & others. (2024). Belanja modal pemerintah dan crowding-in investasi.
Matytsin, A. (2024a). Kerangka hukum investasi dan kepercayaan investor.
Matytsin, A. (2024b). Struktur investasi dan tata kelola kontraktual.
Merton, R. C. (1982a). On Financial Policy and Organizational Form. Journal of Finance.
Merton, R. C. (1982b). On the Microeconomic Theory of Investment in the Presence of Uncertainty.
Oliveira, M. (2003). Fundamental and Technical Analysis: Applications. Applied Financial Studies.
Pasichnyk, Y. (2024). Sustainability and Economic Growth: Balancing Priorities. Journal of Sustainable Development.
Pelsa, & Balina. (2022). Pembangunan Berkelanjutan: dimensi ekonomi, sosial, lingkungan. Please Supply Journal.
Pistorius, C. (2017a). Fractal and evolutionary finance: a heterodox view.
Pistorius, C. (2017b). Histories of financial economics and market efficiency.
Pistorius, C. (2017c). Knightian Uncertainty and Investment Theory.
Popa, A. (2014). Revisiting the Solow--Swan model: growth and technology.
Popi, & others. (2025). Kontribusi investasi swasta terhadap pertumbuhan PDB Indonesia.
Popp, A., & others. (2018). Private equity and corporate restructuring.
Popp, J., Oláh, J., Machova, V., & Jachowicz, A. (2018). Private equity market of the visegrad group. 12(1), 1–15. https://doi.org/10.26552/EMS.2018.1.1-15
Pratama, & Rofiuddin. (2023). Efektivitas PMDN terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi.
Putra, A. (2010). Interaksi investasi dan produktivitas.
Putra, A. R., & others. (2023). Kualitas infrastruktur, regulasi, pembiayaan, dan dampak PMDN.
Rijoly, & others. (2025). Geopolitical risk, capital flows, and wait-and-see effects.
Rosdiana. (n.d.). Kebijakan suku bunga dan investasi.
Salvadori, N. (2003). The Theory of Economic Growth: A Classical Perspective. Edward Elgar.
Sandelowski, M. (2000). Whatever Happened to Qualitative Description? Research in Nursing & Health, 23(4), 334–340. https://doi.org/10.1002/1098-240X(200008)23:4<334::AID-NUR9>3.0.CO;2-G
Sari, M., & others. (2016). Tenaga kerja dan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia.
Sidebang, & others. (2025). FDI, teknologi, infrastruktur, dan penyerapan kerja.
Syed, & Majeed. (2007a). Credit access and private investment.
Syed, S. H., & Majeed, M. T. (2007b). Public Policy and Private Investment in Pakistan. https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/57675.html
Tajerin. (n.d.). PAKEM/PAKMEI, SDM, dan efisiensi birokrasi.
Wang, & others. (2024). Risk-sharing instruments and PPP for infrastructure.
Xu, X. E. (2008). Global Perspectives on Venture Capital and Private Equity. 187–209. https://ideas.repec.org/h/wsi/wschap/9789812770363_0008.html
y la Borda Salazar, C. J. P. (2025). Alternativas Jurídicas de la Inversión Privada en el Perú. Yachaq, 19, 195–223. https://doi.org/10.51343/yq.vi19.1823
Yin, D. (2019). Investment Decision Based on Entropy Theory. Modern Economy, 10(4), 1211–1228. https://doi.org/10.4236/ME.2019.104083
Zaza, A. M. S. U., Banoet, R. Y., & Dima, E. T. Y. (2025). Dampak Ketengangan Geopolitik terhadap Investasi Asing Langsung (FDI) di Indonesia. Scientific Journal of Reflection, 8(3), 949–958. https://doi.org/10.37481/sjr.v8i3.1175
Zaza, & others. (2025). Geopolitik, FDI, dan relokasi industri.
Лавренова, N., & Ilina. (2020). Risk and uncertainty in investment decisions.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 M. Ramadhan Caesar, Gina Sonia, Tesi Anggeriani
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
